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| Do my eyes decive me? |
In a recent
article, brief description of a key point, your gut may be wrong, was mentioned. Daniel Kahneman, “Thinking Fast and Slow”, made this case in his best-selling
book. A recent Facebook story told as if
by a leading professor and modified a bit, leads you to the same
conclusion. The story is below:
“A
professor stood before his philosophy class and had some items in front of him.
When the class began, he wordlessly picked up a very large and empty mayonnaise
jar and proceeded to fill it with golf balls. He then asked the students if the
jar was full. They agreed that it was.
The
professor then picked up a box of pebbles and poured them into the jar. He
shook the jar lightly. The pebbles rolled into the open areas between the golf
balls. He then asked the students again if the jar was full. They agreed it
was.
The
professor next picked up a box of sand and poured it into the jar. Of course,
the sand filled up everything else. He asked once more if the jar was full..
The students responded with a unanimous 'yes.'
The
professor then produced two Beers from under the table and poured the entire
contents into the jar effectively filling the empty space between the sand. The
students laughed..
'Now,'
said the professor as the laughter subsided, 'I want you to recognize that this
jar represents your life. The golf balls are the important things---your
family, your children, your health, your friends and your favorite
passions---and if everything else was lost and only they remained, your life
would still be full. The pebbles are the other things that matter like your
job, your house and your car. The sand is everything else---the small stuff.
'If you
put the sand into the jar first,' he continued, 'there is no room for the
pebbles or the golf balls. The same goes for life.
If you
spend all your time and energy on the small stuff you will never have room for
the things that are important to you.
Pay
attention to the things that are critical to your happiness.
Spend time
with your children. Spend time with your parents. Visit with grandparents. Take
your spouse out to dinner. Play another 18. There will always be time to clean
the house and mow the lawn.
Take care
of the golf balls first---the things that really matter. Set your priorities.
The rest is just sand.
One of the students raised her hand and
inquired what the Beer represented. The professor smiled and said, 'I'm glad
you asked.' The Beer just shows you that no matter how full your life may seem,
there's always room for a couple of Beers with a friend.”
The story above describes how you view the surroundings and make
decisions using your gut and intuition.
Such decisions can often be less than optimal. The use of analytics helps when applied to
such events. Analytics has even become an
early trend in investing. One VC
actually raised capital on an analytic tool that uses investment patterns of
other VCs. They review by computer the
lead firm and the lead partner making investments. If you come to them with such information,
this firm will invest based on the statistics of success of that partner and
firm! Other investment firms on Wall
Street use analytics in a similar manner.
The point being that review of
your decisions in a more analytical manner may allow for fine-tuning. You may
end with a superior decision. That is
your ultimate goal in the end.
Taffy
Williams is on Twitter by @twilli2861. Email
questions to twilli2861@aol.com. More is
available via his company
website , photo website, or “LIKE”
ColonialTDC on Facebook. You can also find him in the group
Startup Group on
Linkedin. Other articles are in the Charlotte,
NC- small business section of Examiner.com.


Even Gladwell in "Blink" closely examined the dark side of thin-slicing. Copious amounts of time spent on analysis might not get you where you want to go either, but if you're educated about that two seconds of rapid cognition (what some mistake for intuition), you can be trained to quickly pick up on the characteristics that matter.
ReplyDeleteThat same technique can be applied to interpreting the result of analysis, and even to asking the right questions of your data in the first place.